Bell Labs' President Marcus Weldon sees future capacity improvements for copper, fiber and cel Credit: Alcatel-Lucent
In 10 years you may be trying to watch cat videos in 4K, 8K or 16K resolution, but mobile networking will be as much a big-data problem as a bandwidth drag race.
The systems that carriers brag about now for delivering games and streaming media to smartphones will have to be totally re-architected in the next few years to accommodate sensors, cameras and remote-control connections, according to Marcus Weldon, president of Bell Labs.
The New Jersey-based research group is part of Alcatel-Lucent, which could become part of an even larger mobile equipment vendor next year if Nokia wins approval for a takeover bid. So Weldon, who is also Alcatel's CTO, has an interest in overhauling vast networks of cells and back-end systems. But Bell Labs has been ahead of the curve a few times in its more than half century of existence, inventing the laser, the transistor and Unix, among other things.
What's happening in mobile now is the start of a trend as big as the Industrial Revolution and the emergence of the Internet, according to Weldon. It's the instrumentation of everything: By 2025, we will be well on the way to measuring everything going on in the world and being able to remotely control most machines, he says.
The few sensors out there now, collecting digital security video or counting cars going over a wire on a highway, are just the beginning. "We've instrumented almost nothing in our physical world," Weldon said. Others call what's coming the Internet of Things.
Even simple devices can tell intriguing stories, like the Jawbone UP activity trackers that gauged an early-morning earthquake by showing whether users woke up. The concept can be extended to things like logistics, where cheap wireless devices on boxes could fill in the gaps in package tracking.
Today's wireless networks won't even be able to deal with the number of objects that will be sending signals in 10 years, let alone the amount of data they may be transmitting, Weldon said. Carriers will have to rebuild their systems for signaling, the procedural messages that networks and devices exchange just to make communication work.
For example, a typical cellular base station on a tower is built to handle signaling for about 1,200 devices. That may be enough to serve all the mobile subscribers in an area, but after all these sensors and connected machines get installed over the next 10 years, that cell might have 300,000 devices to keep tabs on, Weldon said.
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