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Predictions 2011

Chin Tua Kee | April 28, 2011
Analyst firm Ovum predicts major shifts in smartphone and wholesale telecommunication services markets, among other things.

Ovum, a business technology analyst firm focusing on the telecommunications, software and IT services markets, released late last year its predictions of events and dominant issues that will shape enterprise IT in 2011. “The telecoms landscape is changing rapidly and our predictions reflect that,” Jan Dawson, Ovum’s Chief Telecoms Analyst, said at the time of the announcement.

And how are they changing?

The predictions made in Ovum’s Telecoms in 2011 report below.
•    Windows Phone 7 will upset the status quo in the smartphone market by becoming the fastest-growing smartphone platform.
•    Android will overtake the iPhone as the favourite with mobile developers by end of the year.
•    Cloud services will move from early adopter to the early mainstream stage and will have an impact on key emerging telco services.
•    Broadband will provide the fastest and most promising growth in emerging markets.
•    The emerging market mobile subscriber land grab will begin to end with single-digit or low double-digit growth becoming the norm as competition intensifies.
•    Web 2.0 intermediaries will increase their demand for managed services at a wholesale level.
•    Wholesale markets will begin to take off across emerging countries.
•    The ‘fight’ for the connected/extended home will accelerate.
•    There will be debate around data business models and tariff strategies and the arrival of innovative new approaches to data service charging.
•    Making prime spectrum bands available for mobile broadband will need to be a top priority.
•    Regulators will become embroiled in a vigorously contested consultation process over the future of mobile termination rates.
•    Telcos will invest in customer service centres and back office technology as the customer is put at the centre of their operations.
•    There will be further shake outs in the telecoms supply chain and to fare well vendors will need to execute well in high-growth applications such as mobile broadband and support customers’ cost reduction and revenue growth.
•    Optical component growth will moderate with demand led by 10, 40 and 100G products but the underlying business fundamentals of the market will remain unchanged, maintaining an unstable supply chain.


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